Survivor Cagayan Power Rankings with Billy Garcia & Kelly Shinn – Week 4

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For the 28th season of Cagayan we will be once again bringing you our weekly POWER RANKINGS as Ben & Jarryd rank the contestants each week based on performance and strategy and where they are perceived to be in the game! This season we also welcome two special guest POWER RANKERS with Billy Garcia from Survivor Cook Islands Kelly ‘Purple Kelly’ Shinn joining in the fun and help rank the contestants! We continue our rankings for another week with our episode 5 rankings, which we are sure will cause speculation and debate as we get closer to next weeks episode!

HOW THE RANKINGS ARE CALCULATED

Each week Ben, Jarryd, Billy & Kelly will rank the remaining contestants based their opinion of where they stand in the game, with the four totals being tallied to produce a total score . The lowest total score will be ranked at the top, with the second lowest in second, third lowest in third and so on and so forth. Each week the overall list will be published, separated into three tribes. It will combine into one list once the tribes merge (or two should there be a tribe dissolve).

APARRI RANKINGS

1st – Spencer

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OVERALL: 1st (+4)
BILLY RANK: 1st
KELLY RANK: 2nd
BEN RANK: 2nd
JARRYD RANK: 6th

BILLY: “He’s gone from the outhouse to the penthouse. He hung on and now he’s got the power on his tribe. The chess player has all of the pawns he needs to make moves and make it far. If Spencer and Tasha can co-exist they have the potential to achieve checkmate. I think though we haven’t seen the evil mastermind yet, we’ve still got a lot of game left. I expect to see his devil horns pop out soon.”

KELLY: “Confident he will be in the final 3. – Plus hoping he aligns with Alexis at some point for the take over.” 

BEN: “Finally Spencer can shine and show us all what he is capable of. The switch worked perfectly for him and the Brains, and he will exploit it best. I can see him getting quite aggressive and on peoples nerves so that’s why he doesn’t take number 1 this week from me, but he is in a really good position that I can’t see changing anytime soon.”

JARRYD: “Shot up the rankings after finally getting to get away from Brains tribe to an extent. I can’t see him continuing to remain loyal to two women who were ready to vote him out and he’s game awareness is high enough to know that staying with the “two mums” won’t get him to the end. Going to be great to watch in the coming weeks.”

2nd – Alexis

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OVERALL: 5th (-1)
BILLY RANK: 8th
KELLY RANK: 1st
BEN RANK: 12th
JARRYD RANK: 3rd

BILLY: “She’s gone from being so quiet she was on the chopping block with the Beauty tribe to being really aggressive and ready to throw her former tribe mates under the bus. YES! She has some work to do but she can work the Brains Power Trio and position herself to be around a long while. Anything can happen post merge. She could reunite with LJ and Jefra or there maybe other options. Right now her mission is to outlast by any means necessary. She’s won me over. You Go Girl! Get Scrappy!”

KELLY: “Do I think she could actually win? …Yes, yes I still do.”

BEN: “Should be the first to go from new Aparri once they lose. She’s working things too hard when she doesn’t need to. Sit back and let Morgan dig her own hole without digging your own. If she makes the merge, I’ll be extremely surprised.”

JARRYD: “Will cop it for this but where is the evidence that she’s in danger? The edit is not going to show everything and whilst it seems like she’s no longer with Jeremiah I doubt very much she’s going to throw away her alliance with him. She’ll see the game through to the Merge.”

3rd – Kass

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OVERALL: 6th (+8)
BILLY RANK: 10th
KELLY RANK: 13th
BEN RANK: 9th
JARRYD RANK: 4th

BILLY: “She’s part of the Brains Power Trio. She’s number three out of three but they are a tight alliance so it counts for a lot. Kass seems to like to be the voice of reason. It makes sense considering that Tasha and Spencer are such aggressive strategists. The approach Kass is taking seems to mainly be: get to the end with the Brains Power Trio and hope for a bitter jury. To quote the greatest brain ever, Mr. Spock, “Fascinating.””

KELLY: “Putting Kass here just based on airtime and editing.”

BEN: “Kass is sort of in a weird spot right now. For sure she is safe for a few votes with the Brains really taking control on Aparri, but then what? The only real ally she has is Tasha, and I don’t see her trying to form anything else with anyone outside just yet. Will Spencer remain loyal to her and Tash given he was so close to being taken out by them? Who knows? Not sure where Kass will go from here.”

JARRYD: “I still think Kass is very overrated and nowhere near as good of player as she and others believe her to be. She complains about her other tribe members being terrible at the game yet she was part of that terrible tribe, making those decisions. Loyalty is all she has going for her.”

4th – Morgan

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OVERALL: 7th (+3)
BILLY RANK: 11th
KELLY RANK: 4th
BEN RANK: 5th
JARRYD RANK: 10th

BILLY: “She’s still fighting the good fight but is in a lot of trouble. The good news is, there is someone on her tribe in a worse situation in Sarah. But Morgan got called out about the HII clue at the beginning of the game and got thrown under the busby Alexis in a private conversation with the Brains Power Trio. Morgan has a steep uphill climb ahead of her. Her days are numbered. Damn it!”

KELLY: “Not sure how Morgan will make it to this spot – but I’m not seeing her leaving anytime soon – they will need her numbers and I’m thinking she is loyal enough to trust.”

BEN: “Don’t get me wrong when I say that Morgan is by no means safe after this switch, but if she can survive to the merge then she is a real threat to go all the way. I feel as though Alexis and Sarah will be targeted before she is should Aparri lose, and she just has to keep her head in the game and aim for the merge to really be able to make a run for the end. A real smokey for a FTC spot.”

JARRYD: “Morgan please drop the grudge against your former Beauty tribe mates because it’s going to cost you the game. Whilst I don’t think she’s going to come anywhere close to winning, she can’t alienate herself from two potential allies because they weren’t with her at the first Tribal Council. Fantastic socially and people will be threatened by her so could miss making the Merge.”

5th – Jeremiah

Jeremiah_thumb1_thumb_thumb_thumb

OVERALL: 8th (-1)
BILLY RANK: 9th
KELLY RANK: 9th
BEN RANK: 4th
JARRYD RANK: 8th

BILLY: “He’s being outed by both Morgan and Alexis for being wishy washy. Yep. I saw this coming. He’s still got his southern charm but Alexis beat him to the punch in talking to the former Brains tribe first. Jeremiah may not be aware that he’s not as in with the Brains Power Trio as he thinks. Could be eliminated just to prevent him from playing swing vote any further.”

KELLY: “He will be voted off after the merge just because he physically poses a threat.”

BEN: “My pre-game pick to win improves this week ever so slightly as I feel the girl beauties will be targeted before he is on the new Aparri and I think he can form something pretty tight with the Brains moving forward. I also see him hooking back up with Jefra and LJ when the merge comes, and some strong alliances can be formed from that. A real chance still to walk away with the million.”

JARRYD: “Middle of the road for Jeremiah. He’s not in any trouble yet he’s not going to do anything special. Will stay loyal to Alexis and the pair will go forward to the Merge. Will need to up his act strategically if he wants to make the Final Three.”

6th – Tasha

Tasha_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb

OVERALL: 10th (+3)
BILLY RANK: 2nd
KELLY RANK: 8th
BEN RANK: 10th
JARRYD RANK: 12th

BILLY: “She has managed to calm down and get her groove on strategically. She’s got a tag-team going with Spencer and Kass. She will be around when this game gets decided post merge. It’s all about how well she and the former Brains tribe position themselves from now to then. It’s time to see that intelligence come into play with the new tribe. I expect Tasha to stick with her Brains Power Trio and together, they’ll call their shots going forward. If she can turn it up in the challenges, she can match Spencer as a front runner in my rankings.”

KELLY: “People won’t want to put up with her.”

BEN: “Things are only going to go down hill for her from here. Her true colours will boil to the surface and it’s all going to catch up with her sooner rather than later. I just don’t see why people rate her so highly. See closing comments from Trish as to what will happen with her.”

JARRYD: “Her bossiness will cause dissent among her new tribe members. I think she’s an extremely overrated player who could miss out on making the Merge because Spencer turns on her or will be an safe vote when the time comes.”

7th – Sarah

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OVERALL: 12th (-3)
BILLY RANK: 12th
KELLY RANK: 10th
BEN RANK: 11th
JARRYD RANK: 7th

BILLY: “Worse case scenario has befallen Sarah. It’s gonna take the former Beauty tribe self destructing to save her. Not sure if that will happen but the seeds of that have been planted. If Sarah is aware she has a chance to survive. If not, Officer Down, Officer Down!”

KELLY: “She is an outcast – so it seems a little inevitable to see her go soon.”

BEN: “Sarah seems to have a weekly soundbite of “oh no what should I do” before just going into invisibility mode for the rest of the episode. It’s simple Survivor logic that when you are the lone person on a tribe of 7 with two opposing groups of 3 that you are super valuable, not at the bottom. Until she sees that, I can’t put her any higher.”

JARRYD: “She thinks she’s in a bad position, I think she’s in a great position. No allegiance to anyone on her tribe so has the luxury of siding with who she wants. Will make the Merge.”

SOLANA RANKINGS

1st – Tony

Tony_thumb1_thumb_thumb_thumb

OVERALL: 2nd (-1)
BILLY RANK: 3rd
KELLY RANK: 3rd
BEN RANK: 6th
JARRYD RANK: 1st

BILLY: “After the tribe swap/merge Tony came out looking the best. Sarah was his only loss having gone to the other tribe. Yet, he found himself choosing to lessen his numbers and take out Cliff because Trish was still believing his lie about the faux plot against Sarah. Tony’s time at the top of the rankings is coming to an end now. His lies are starting to limit his moves. And reducing his numbers could hurt him in a lot of different ways. He should consider Sarah lost to him and now with Cliff booted, he has four left. If Lindsey goes next Tony will box himself in. The HII can only save him once. Then it’s “10-4 over and out” for the cop.”

KELLY: Won’t win if he makes it to the final 3 – so definitely take him to the top with you.”

BEN: “Tony had the switch go against him in losing his right hand girl in Sarah and now finds himself having to work with Trish who he sided with. Probably not a smart move to keep LJ over Cliff as that for sure is going to not sit well with Woo and Lindsey and it takes a couple of angry people to really derail a game. Sarah won’t mind one bit that Tony voted out Cliff, but was it really necessary? When you have a large numbers advantage like that you should always go for the biggest threat rather than target your own just because you can. What was 5-2 just became 4-2 which isn’t anywhere nearly as comfortable.”

JARRYD: “Never thought I’d do this but Tony is playing a very strong strategic game, which is exactly the opposite of what I thought he’d do. In a powerful position in the Solana tribe, can control Trish and has a Idol. ”

2nd – LJ

LJ_thumb1_thumb_thumb_thumb

OVERALL: 3rd ()
BILLY RANK: 4th
KELLY RANK: 12th
BEN RANK: 3rd
JARRYD RANK: 2nd

BILLY: “He has overcome a serious blow to his former tribe with the Swap/Merge as well as the serious blows to his manhood in the previous episode. He pulled a Houdini act and survived a tribal council that in most seasons would have spelled doom for either himself or Jefra. And he did it without having to play his hidden immunity idol. WOW! I’m not sure if it’s because he’s that good or because the others are that bad. Somehow, the former Brawn tribe got talked into giving up one of their numbers. LJ is alive but not in an ideal situation. He’s gonna be interesting to watch. He’s playing Trish like a male Cook Islands Parvati.”

KELLY: “Put LJ 12th – thinking that because they split vote in this episode that they will still gun for him after getting Trish out. – They will not “absorb” you.”

BEN: “I’ve seen more exciting sticks than LJ but he is in an extremely good position now that Tony and Trish have sided with him. He has an idol too which will come in very very handy and nobody knows he has it which is even more convenient for him. I see him though definitely rubbing people the wrong way at some point and we saw this week that the target is pretty close to him. Can still win this game.”

JARRYD: “Handled the Switch very well and was a big move not playing his Idol. Made inroads with Trish and Tony, kept his Idol and has a loyal Jefra by his side. Big, positive edit still suggests to me he’s going all the way.”

3rd – Jefra

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OVERALL: 4th (+2)
BILLY RANK: 5th
KELLY RANK: 11th
BEN RANK: 1st
JARRYD RANK: 5th

BILLY: “We finally saw Jefra play this episode. Her back had to be against the wall for her to come out from under the radar but she’s arrived! She got busy and took part in a move that saved her and LJ. Alright. It’s very possible that with LJ being such a big target that she might get underestimated and slip by Tony as the game progresses. Am I the only one that keeps accidentally saying Jefra when I mean to say Jeff Probst?”

KELLY: “That leaves Jefra – the only beauty – hoping she can survive through this – but I find it unlikely against the brawns.”

BEN: “Call me stupid, but Jefra is sitting nice and pretty right now in more ways than one. She just had Tony and Trish side with her and LJ, and she has done absolutely nothing to rub anyone the wrong way. She is sweet, social and fairly strong in challenges and is getting enough of an edit to suggest there is heaps more to come. Underestimate her at your peril.”

JARRYD: “Like LJ, getting a respectable edit and coming across as a very nice, yet strategic player. Holding her own in challenges and not threatening enough to take out just yet. Loyalty to her alliance makes her a very important player.”

4th – Woo

Woo_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb

OVERALL: 9th (-7)
BILLY RANK: 7th
KELLY RANK: 6th
BEN RANK: 8th
JARRYD RANK: 11th

BILLY: “The look on Woo’s face after Cliff was blindsided is a Survivor moment that will live on. Classic money shot.Right now Woo has to become a pawn in Tony’s game until Tony finishes boxing himself in and gets himself eliminated. Woo is going to have to get very social. He’s not out of it by any stretch. Tony needs Woo’s vote. But for now he’s lost a lot of power. I’m not jumping off Woo’s bandwagon but I have to be real with my ranking.””

KELLY: “I don’t want woo to be anywhere except the final 3 or 4 – but thinking he will pose a physical threat and be a social threat.”

BEN: “Cliff going definitely hurt Woo but nobody really is taking much notice of him for him to really be in danger. It looks as though Lindsey is the one in danger should Solana lose again, so Woo just has to keep his head out of danger and go behind the scenes a little bit before really coming out strong. I still think he is a real dark horse to win this game.”

JARRYD: “Was completely in the dark with the Cliff vote out which makes it obvious Tony doesn’t trust him as much as Sarah does. Fantastic in challenges but it’ll be hard pressed to keep him over Lindsey because he’ll be a danger come the Merge. Will probably sneak through but isn’t in contention to win.”

5th – Trish

Trish_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb

OVERALL: 11th (-3)
BILLY RANK: 10th
KELLY RANK: 13th
BEN RANK: 9th
JARRYD RANK: 4th

BILLY: “She’s seduced by LJ. And she’s getting more and more emotional. She’s slowly becoming a detriment to Tony’s game. Since she’s basically his pawn he might have second thoughts about keeping her around for the long haul. We’ll have to see how her war with Lindsey plays out but that can’t be good for either player.”

KELLY: “Her loyalty is in question & that scares people more than anything.”

BEN: “She’s in love with LJ and has vendettas against her old tribe members. Is that all she has to offer? I don’t get the game Trish is playing. She isn’t playing to win by any means, so what can we expect from her? Best I can see is early jury and even that’s a stretch..”

JARRYD: “Is being manipulated by Tony who played to her good side by letting her make a move and take out Cliff. Not a threat by any means, playing with her heart and therefore is extremely disposable and can be taken out when necessary.”

6th – Lindsey

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OVERALL: 13th (-2)
BILLY RANK: 13th
KELLY RANK: 7th
BEN RANK: 13th
JARRYD RANK: 13th

BILLY: “I so want to root for Lindsey but she’s on a downward spiral. Not too many players have pulled up from those. And judging by the previews it’s gonna get worse. I can only hope she doesn’t quit.”

KELLY: “Again, I cant see her making it the end – so right in the middle seems to be a fitting spot.”

BEN: “Not really seeing anything of her which is setting her up for a middle boot or a late boot who will believe she is in a tight alliance when really she was just being dragged along. I want her to prove me wrong and show some spice, as I think there is a lot more Lindsey we need to see.”

JARRYD: “Pains me to put her at the bottom but next week would suggest she is on a one way ticket to a quit or a vote out. Which sucks. She has game. She has sass. And she is strong in challenges. Her number one go to person is gone though. So it’s going to be extremely unlikely she can progress any further. Just don’t quit!”

Our next Power Rankings will be up after the sixth episode! What do you think of our rankings? Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts below!

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BenWaterworthFooter6_thumb_thumb_thu

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16 Comments on Survivor Cagayan Power Rankings with Billy Garcia & Kelly Shinn – Week 4

  1. I’m surprised everyone was so quick to jump off woo, he still has so many options to go far and he is long down the list of targets. He may be a threat but he is doing a really good job of staying off people’s radar. As far as I see it he is still in with the brawns but if he turns on them he has a liable excuse to get votes at the end that people won’t recognize. If that logic makes sense… Lol, good work otherwise.

  2. Did Kelly even watch the episode, offered as much insight as my baby brother. Otherwise I like the insights and rankings.

  3. Seriously Kelly, what have you been smoking? They split the votes between LJ and Cliff? Lindsey (who has no allies) is more safe than Trish (there’s a 0% chance Tony will turn on her)?

    • I could be wrong but I think there are two different ways that power rankings are approached. I think most people rank according to where they will place in the game whereas others, possibly like Kelly rank people according to the likelihood that they will win the game. For example say you’re at the final 10, you could rank a goat at 3 because you think people will want to take them to the end but won’t get jury votes or you could rank them 8 because you know they have a low chance of actually winning. The argument could be made that Lindsey has a better chance of winning then Trish having made final 3.

  4. Tasha has been seriously underrated! If you watch the extra scenes on cbs, Spencer still seems totally loyal to her, and no one has been put off by her alleged bossiness. Moreover, she’s had an *incredible* edit thus far. “I have what it takes to win this game”; “Why can’t I be top dog? I can do it”; “Just when you think you’re out of the game, things switch up, and you’re back on top”; these are golden quotes to put in her final winner’s reel. I think it’s really imperceptive to rank her so low at this point in the game.

  5. Wtf Tasha should be in the top 3! Alexis would go before her for sure. Ludicrous. & Trish is too low imo. That move makes her at least 2nd or 3rd on the tribe.

  6. Can we edit out Kelly’s ranks like the way they did to her when she played?! Morgan will be voted out sooner than Tasha mark my words. Have you watched the episode?! This should be based on what you seen not what you want. At least Tony’s rank is agreeable. Trisha will not leave anytime soon as well based in that power move! ❤

  7. Trish should be higher up on the list, or at least higher than Woo and Morgan.

  8. Next time if you want to hire a quitter. At least get someone who have some game in them like Naonka! Gosh.

  9. #teamtv all the way! Woot woot!

  10. henrietta or hetty // March 24, 2014 at 11:05 am // Reply

    just a thought: i think Lindsey and Cliff initially looked at Woo to see if he’s the one who flipped. Woo’s reaction says it all. HAHAHA. Its like Woo would choke or collapse after the votes are read. OMG. so freaking funny. Then Tony just acts cool like nothing happened and very calm af. He’s just simply hysterical 😀 Can’t wait to see how Sarah (would react with this when she see the other tribe! I also don’t really agree bout half of the rankings here. Maybe after merge the ranks here would make more sense. I personally like Tony, Sarah, Trish, LJ & Spencer 😉

  11. um SCOOOOZ me! how are you people calling trish tony’s pawn? that is RIDIC! she had total control over tony’s vote this week and convinced him to turn on his brawn tribe! initially he said voting out cliff was ‘totally crazy’ but he did it, so trish obviously worked him! tut tut power rankings.

  12. Can we get Kelly to stop doing the power rankings

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